Jed Dukett of Tupper Lake will be glued to the TV set this week, watching Aaron Judge and his beloved New York Yankees duel the Toronto Blue Jays for a chance to reach the American League Championship Series.
The author of “Jacks: The Most Incredible Home Run Seasons in MLB History,’’ makes a devoted baseball fan like me seem like a mere Little Leaguer. Forget that I watch 150-plus Cleveland Guardians games a season. I get no bonus points for being a former umpire or for being the son of the late Morristown Central School baseball coach and semi-pro player, Fran Holleran.
Dukett resides in a league of his own. He pored through 100 years of home run data and developed a statistical analysis that accounted for lowering the height of pitchers’ mounds, expansion eras that watered down pitching staffs, juiced baseballs and inflated numbers from players using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) and steroids. Then he self-published his findings in a book.
Barry Bonds might hold the major-league record for jacking 73 homers in 2001, but Dukett wanted to know if Bonds truly was the most prolific home-run hitter.
“Given an even playing field (no steroids or other PEDS), I honestly don’t think anyone will ever beat Bonds record of 73 in 2001,’’ Dukett said. “That bothered me. I felt it was unfair, because of how many of us feel the record was established.’’
Baseball fans recall the stratospheric totals of the summer of 1998 when Mark McGwire of St. Louis hit 70 while Sammy Sosa of the Chicago Cubs smashed 66. It was the same feverish pace the next season — McGwire hit 65 and Sosa 63, all better than the legendary Babe Ruth’s 60 homers in 1927 (154 games) and Roger Maris’s 61 in 1961 (162 games).
Bonds set the standard two years later, bashing his 73. He never admitted to using steroids, but the clubhouse guys knew of his transformation from Twiggy to Adonis across the years, and marveled how his head, hands and feet swelled, a telltale sign of HGH (human growth hormone).
Bonds wasn’t alone. A host of Baseball Hall of Fame candidates were outed by MLB investigations. Bonds. McGwire. Sosa. Roger Clemens. Alex Rodriguez. Manny Ramirez. Rafael Palmeiro. Jose Canseco. Jason Giambi. Gary Sheffield. Andy Pettite. I’ll run out of space.
My favorite was Brady Anderson of the Baltimore Orioles. Generously listed at 6-foot-1, he never hit more than 21 homers in a season and carried a .250 average. During the 1996 season he surged from David to Goliath, depositing 50 balls over the outfield fences. He retreated to 18, 18, 24, and 19 over the next four seasons. Something was amiss.
That era gnawed at Dukett so he set out to devise a mathematical analysis to compare power hitters.
“The objective is to compare a stat leader to his peers for each new season. And calculate how much that leader stands out from the pack. That is, how much of an outlier does he make himself. The good news is you can do this with any sports stat, I chose home runs. And it provides new opportunity each new year.’’
A lifetime of factors conspired in 2022 to turn Dukett into an author. He had grown up watching baseball in Tupper Lake with his grandfather and taking batting practice in the yard. His aunt took him to Yankee Stadium for his first major-league game between New York and Boston. He played in high school, helped to build a Little League field, and maintained the high school diamond. His job as an acid-rain scientist lapsed after 27 years at the Adirondack Lakes Survey Corp. Research that Dukett and colleagues gathered led to Midwestern coal-fired plants installing scrubbers, allowing Adirondack Lakes to recover.
Dukett applied his scientific knowledge – first honed at Plattsburgh State – to HR hitters.
“I could see that Aaron Judge was becoming an outlier in September 2022,’’ Dukett said. “And I also knew a lot of guys hit HRs during each season of the steroid years. It wasn’t just Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa. I wanted to objectively calculate if Judge stood out more in 2022 then Bonds did in 2001. So, that is what I did, and went the next step with 100+ years of HR data. And then wrote a book!’’
Start the drumroll. The all-time home run champ in Dukett’s eyes, backed by his research, is Aaron Judge. The 6-foot-7, 280-pound Yankees rightfielder holds the highest single-season score under Dukett’s index. It’s not surprising that Babe Ruth holds the career best.
Other names will surprise you. Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays hit 54 homers in 2010 when no other player reached 40. One of the most stunning names was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 53-homer season in 2013 surpassed the “Jacks’’ score of Bonds when he hit 73 in 2001.
Wait. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh crushed 60 homers this season. How does he rank?
“Actual raw data numbers will always grab the attention of the fan,’’ Dukett said. “And Raleigh hitting 60 this past season deserves much praise. He had a great year, especially for a switch-hitting catcher. And while I have yet to do the calculation, I can tell by looking at the leaderboard that Raleigh won’t break the modern-day Jacks record I record in my book.’’
Dukett hasn’t spent a lot of time promoting his impeccable research. He’s trying to knock it out of the park with a new venture – Timberjaxx Pass, an 18-hole miniature golf course and ice cream parlor along the shores of Tupper Lake.
When the snow flies and the putters are stowed, Dukett intends to keep busy this winter.
“I may get back into baseball stats analysis this winter and tinker with pitching ERA and other stats.’’
Morristown native Jim Holleran is a retired teacher and sports editor from Rochester. Reach him at jimholleran29@gmail.com or view past columns under “Reflections of River Rat’’ at https://hollerangetsitwrite.com/blog/
Holleran Gets It Write 